Research on the Economic Effects and Cross-Sectoral Equilibrium Mechanism of Gradual Delayed Retirement Policy

Abstract

Faced with the rapidly advancing trend of deep aging and the structural contradiction of a continuously shrinking labor supply in my country, the gradual delayed retirement policy has become a key institutional arrangement for alleviating labor shortages and enhancing the sustainability of the pension system. However, the economic effects of this policy do not evolve linearly, but rather form a cross-sectoral feedback mechanism between the labor market and the pension fund system, with complex impact paths, effect distributions, and policy costs. Existing research mostly explores the effects of delayed retirement from a single perspective, but lacks a systematic explanation of the interaction mechanism between changes in labor supply and the balance of pension fund revenue and expenditure. Based on this, this paper analyzes the dynamic impact of gradual delayed retirement on the operation of the labor market from the micro-mechanisms of labor supply structure, employment participation rate, wage changes, and enterprise employment behavior; at the same time, it constructs a pension fund revenue and expenditure structure model to explore the moderating effect of delayed retirement on the sustainability of the fund through the chain of effects of increased contributors, decreased recipients, and improved dependency ratio. On this basis, this paper further constructs a cross-sectoral equilibrium mechanism framework between the labor market and the pension system, revealing the positive and negative feedback relationships formed between the delayed retirement policy and the two subsystems. Studies show that gradual delayed retirement can generally expand the effective labor supply and reduce pension payment pressure. However, the impact varies significantly among different age groups, gender groups, and occupational types, exhibiting phased and structural characteristics in its policy effects. To improve policy feasibility and social equity, this paper proposes simultaneously advancing the construction of a vocational training system, improving differentiated retirement arrangements, enhancing the flexibility of the pension system, and strengthening policy communication mechanisms to achieve a balance between economic sustainability and social acceptance in gradual delayed retirement reform.