Dynamic Coordination Effect of Pollution Reduction, Carbon Reduction, and Economic Development in Anhui Province

Abstract

K Based on the balanced panel data of environmental pollutants, carbon dioxide emissions, and regional GDP for 16 cities in Anhui Province from 2007 to 2023, which are treated as endogenous variables, the PVAR model is employed to investigate the dynamic equilibrium relationship between pollution reduction, carbon reduction, and economic development in Anhui Province. The study finds that: ①There is a long-term inertia effect in Anhui's economic development, which has formed a sustained self-growth mechanism compared to pollution reduction and carbon reduction. ② The causal relationship between economic development and environmental pollutant control mainly manifests as an inhibitory effect of environmental pollutant emissions on economic development. The impact response of water pollutants and atmospheric pollutants on economic development follows an "inverted U-shaped" curve, and economic development has a long-term promoting effect on environmental pollutants. ③ The phased decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions is insufficient, and the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on economic growth shows an "inverted V-shaped" positive response. ④ The coordinated emissions of economic growth and pollution reduction and carbon reduction exhibit a "first inhibitory, then promotive" effect. Economic growth will inhibit the effects of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the short term, but will turn into a positive promotive effect as time goes by, gradually shifting the relationship towards synergy. To achieve the "win-win" goal of high-quality economic development and ecological environment protection, Anhui Province needs to fully leverage the "double dividend" effect of economic development on pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and build a green, low-carbon, and circular development system through industrial structure optimization, technological innovation empowerment, and policy mechanism coordination.